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Writer's pictureJOHN AGUIRRE

8.14 - Rates likely to be at worst point of year



Ways to under stand the chart.


As bond price goes up = rates improved

As bond price goes down = rates deteriorated.


As of this morning, bonds are at the lowest point of the 2023 so rates should follow in kind.

I included the bond chart history back to Oct-Dec 2022 only for the reason to show that the last time rates were in this position, market activity slowed down, and three-two-one buydowns became all the rage. Brace your sellers accordingly. Expect buyers to request concessions until we see rates improve again.


Potential causes for interest rate deterioration to start the week?

- Headline jobs data not meeting the benchmark's the Fed is expecting

- Fed member Mary Daly announcing that more work needs to be done to bring down inflation, spooking the bond market.

- Expectation of Fed minutes to be released this week

-retail sales

-builder sentiment

Traders like to see the implications of the release of these reports before determining what to do.






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